Germany Has a 'Maggie'

By Torsten Krauel, The Wall Street Journal Europe, March 21, 2000

The German weekly "Rheinischer Merkur" last week condensed it all in the headline: "Here Comes 'Maggie' Merkel." No one, of course, would declare Angela Merkel to be Margaret Thatcher's Prussian political equivalent. Most Germans, however, have grasped it by now: the woman who was nominated Monday to lead the Christian Democratic Union has what it takes to make it to the top.

It seems to be an irony of history that Mrs. Merkel, who had been pushed into politics by Helmut Kohl, is the one pushing him backstage now. The former chancellor is not one to suffer disloyalty easily, but he does appreciate courage. So he has grudgingly let it be known that the time is ripe for a woman to lead the CDU. Party leaders agreed, and chose Mrs. Merkel unanimously to run as party leader at the CDU congress on April 9-11.

Mr. Kohl, after all, conquered the party 35 years ago using the same shrewd tactics and ruthless power politics Mrs. Merkel now employs. Like his successor he was self-effacing, to the point of being dull, so as not to arouse suspicion. He ingratiated himself with higher-ups and those who attracted attention, as Mrs. Merkel did. Then, at the right moment, he grasped the initiative and spoke out against party patriarchs who had "betrayed the cause." At the critical moment, both Mr. Kohl and Mrs. Merkel saw contenders fall because they lacked the instinct for what rank-and-file party members really wanted.

Angel to the Rescue

Today, the CDU wants an angel to save it from disaster, and Angela Merkel -- about to become known to the public as "Angie," named so after the Rolling Stones song -- is just such a savior. So the CDU delegates mostly cannot but applaud.

Mrs. Merkel is in fact a kind of revolution. She's not just a woman atop a male-dominated party machine. She's also a Protestant (and one who lived for 17 years with her present husband before marrying him) in the party that most devout German Roman Catholics call home. Lastly, she's an East German.

Mr. Kohl brought fresh faces into his party's inner circle in order to broaden his power base. By giving Angela Merkel the chance to thrive, he unwittingly may have secured the survival of a party fallen victim to his own misdeeds. The CDU will appreciate that some day. Even today some conservative CDU followers are voting for her, even though she's not one of them. They sense that their children or grandchildren like her unpretentious common sense. No more historic gestures and pledges, please.

Not all conservatives within the CDU are smiling, though. Many are looking to their even more conservative Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, for salvation. For this group, CSU chairman Edmund Stoiber, 59, is the natural leader and the man to oppose Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in the 2002 federal election. They might prove wrong. The reason, again, is rooted in history.

The CDU we know today sprung up at the grass-roots level in 1945; it was not founded by some official committee. Its founders wanted to put an end to decades-old divisions that had played into Hitler's hands -- they wanted to reconcile workers and entrepreneurs in a socially compassionate market neconomy, bring together Roman Catholics and Protestants and create a Germany that would play a role in a united Europe. The CDU, in short, is a party inclined to overcome history by glueing back together the splinters that history leaves in its wake.

The CSU, in contrast, wanted to unify Bavaria. Claiming to be the legitimate democratic heir of that proud province's centuries-old independent monarchic tradition, the CSU set out to modernize a federal state which, shortly after the war, sometimes seemed to be on the verge of separatism. It prevailed by posing as the only true Bavarian party, combining left-wing social policies with a staunchly conservative social stance and managing to gain national influence as the conservative conscience of the CDU/CSU as well as a voice against Euro-idealistic views in Germany. The CSU, in short, is very different from the CDU. Rather than attempt to overcome history, it tends to be its logical conclusion. Bavarian history, woven into a German safety net, makes up the very fabric of the CSU.

Seeking the chancellorship, therefore, is a thorny issue for any CSU leader. As things stand, a successful bid for Berlin would mean having to deal with Brussels, even if it is at the expense of Bavarian interests. Such a position would therefore endanger the credibility of the CSU as the trustee of Bavaria's assets.

CSU leader and Bavarian Governor Edmund Stoiber is aware of the ever diminishing influence the nation state has in Europe; he tries to keep his options open. He exerts pressure on Berlin while carefully expanding Bavaria's ties to other self-confident European regions. He also ponders whether he would be able, as chancellor, to steer the European Union's institutional reform in such a way as to benefit Bavaria.

Haider Rising

Mr. Stoiber also knows the price of failure. Being defeated as the CDU/CSU candidate by Mr. Schroeder could be tantamount to losing his grip as a conservative watchdog. With Joerg Haider rising just across the border in Austria, any miscalculation could lead to the rise of a similar party in Bavaria, one that would lure conservative voters away and tarnish Bavaria's reputation as a safe heaven for investors.

Enter "Angie" Merkel. Mr. Stoiber has endorsed her, but he will closely watch her ability to attract conservative votes. The less Angela Merkel is able to do so, the more Mr. Stoiber will be indispensable for the CDU, thereby securing his influence in Brussels. If Mrs. Merkel wins the chancellorship in 2002 by rallying behind a "New Center" flag, Mr. Stoiber could actually see his position become stronger than if he sought office himself and got stuck in some coalition government that eroded his Bavarian power base.

So far, Mrs. Merkel has endorsed such policies as gay partnerships, but has yet to lay most of her cards on the table. Germans in the East, for instance, tend to be far more skeptical of the declining euro than Germans in the rich, export-oriented West (and easterners expect Mrs. Merkel to take their view into account). The reason no one really knows what she will do is that Mrs. Merkel has made sure that her moves be unpredictable. In that, she resembles her teacher Helmut Kohl -- with perhaps the only exception being that the latter conquered the chairmanship without any real experience in national politics, whereas Mrs. Merkel has had a 10-year apprenticeship at the national level.

To rise to the CDU chairmanship must be a dream for an East German. But Mrs. Merkel will cope with it. In the old GDR, she learned how to overcome fear by trusting herself. And for those watching her in disbelief, there will be a lot of surprises.

Mr. Krauel is a columnist and is on the editorial board at Die Welt.